Surprise and Suspense in France’s Presidential Election

Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen came out as the top two contenders on the first round of France’s presidential elections with approximately 24% and 22% respectively. These two candidates will now face at the second round run off on Sunday, May 7th to determine who will be the next president of France for the next five years. I expect that Emmanuel Macron will win comfortably with approximately 60% of the votes on May 7th.

Surprise and Suspense in France’s Presidential Election

The 2016/2017 presidential campaign season in France has been a particularly brutal one with five major contenders and a grand total of eleven candidates for the presidency. Marked by the harsh rhetoric and extreme positions that have characterized global politics throughout the last year, it should come as no surprise that the extreme right candidate Marine Le Pen and the extreme left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon scored so remarkably well. Their anti-European Union, security oriented, and populist rhetoric managed to connect with large sectors of the politically disenchanted and economically strained French population. Similarly, the unfortunate terrorist attack last Thursday on Paris’ emblematic Champs Elysées highlighted the security situation that the country is going through and certainly influenced the decision of undecided voters.

However, Le Pen and Mélenchon along with their undeniable political strength represent a serious threat to the project of European integration as well as the economy of the Eurozone. In the particular case of agriculture and the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), both political figures desire to protect France’s national industry from global trade and to substantially revise, or even break with, the CAP. Furthermore, both Le Pen and Mélenchon advocate for a closer relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

It is worth pointing out that the main reason why Mélenchon did not pass onto the second round run off to challenge Emmanuel Macron was the lack of a coalition with the socialist party candidate Benoît Hamon. Together the scores of Mélenchon and Hamon add up to more than 25%, which means that a coalition behind a single candidacy could have led to the highest score of the first electoral round.

On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron is a businessman and political outsider who, in about one year, created a powerful political movement (En Marche!) that has energized large sectors of French society, particularly amongst the youth and those that lean towards the center of the political spectrum. Branded as the new face of French politics above partisan bickering, Macron has successfully bridged the gap between disenchanted socialists and the moderate right wing of the national electorate. Furthermore, Macron supports the idea of France as a protagonist of further European integration and, during the campaign, has met with several of his homologues worldwide, notably Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal of Algeria, and Prime Minister Theresa May of the United Kingdom.

Finally, as the electoral results came in last night and it became evident that the National Front’s Marine Le Pen will be present at the second round run off, endorsements from across the political spectrum started pouring in for Macron. This new scenario will serve to reassure European and global markets after weeks of uncertainty and uneasiness surrounding the rise of candidates with radical political agendas.

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