Emerging Markets / October 13, 2016

Climate Variations and Potato Production in Japan

Japan is an archipelago nation composed of four main islands: Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu. Boasting a population of approximately 127 million people, Japan is a large consumer as well as producer of food and agricultural goods. This article explores Japan’s potato production and consumption over recent years.

Climate Variations and Potato Production in Japan

On average, Japan produces 2 million metric tons of potatoes every year. However, heavy rain and typhoon activity in the northern Pacific region can negatively affect potato yields. Similarly, Japan faces structural problems within its agriculture industry, which have caused a steady decrease in agricultural output. In the case of potato production, there has been a 2% seasonal decrease over the last several years. Similar to the case of agriculture in South Korea, the structural problems in Japan include an aging farming population, lack of successor generations to tend to the farms, increasing urbanization of the country, a decrease in the availability of arable land, and a shrinking population. Likewise, some of these aging farmers have switched from harvesting potatoes to cultivating wheat because the latter is a less labor-intensive crop.

The total area of land harvested with potato crops went from 78.300 hectares in 2014/15 to 77.330 in 2015/16 and is expected to be of 70.000 during 2016/17. Similarly, potato production has gone from 2.5 million metric tons in 2014/15 to 2.4 million in 2015/16 and finally an expected 1.9 million over the 2016/17 year. Eighty percent (80%) of Japan’s potato harvesting takes place around September on the northernmost island of the archipelago, Hokkaido, whose cool weather year-round is suitable for the cultivation of this crop. Unfortunately, the Hokkaido Island was struck by a strong series of typhoons during the summer of 2016 and it is estimated that as much as 25% of the arable land was spoiled for the season because of flooding. This climatological phenomenon accounts in part for the substantial decrease in projected potato output and is expected to cause a significant supply deficit.

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Japanese potato consumption can be divided into three main categories, whose percentages have remained stable over the last few years. Firstly, some 35% of Japanese potatoes are used as starch, while another 26% is consumed as table potatoes. Likewise, an ever-growing 23% of the production is processed into consumer goods such as chips and mashed potatoes. The remaining 15% is destined to various other purposes. In terms of trade, Japan does not export any substantial amount of its potato production to the international market. However, in terms of import, Japan has been purchasing an increasing amount of potatoes in the international market, as its production continues to decrease. Since 2010, most of the potatoes imported into Japan originate from the United States and are destined to processed foods, such as chips. During 2014/15, the imported amount was of approximately 23.000 metric tons and the following season imported potatoes accounted for almost 30.000 metric tons. Given the shortages in domestic production for 2016/17, imports are expected to reach as much as 35.000 metric tons.

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