Critical Decisions for new French President Macron

Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron was elected as the eighth President of the fifth French Republic with approximately 65% of the vote over Marine Le Pen’s 35% (alongside a substantial amount of blank ballots). Emmanuel Macron’s victory is historic because he will be the youngest president in the history of France, at age 39, as well as the first president not issued from the military or a major political formation. Likewise, the election of Macron serves as a great reassurance for the future of the European Union and the French economy. Nevertheless, Marine Le Pen and the Front National (National Front) will remain a major political force during the crucial upcoming legislative elections in June as well as for years to come.

Critical Decisions for new French President Macron

As a political outsider, Macron’s biggest challenge will be implementing and enforcing his political agenda within France’s hybrid system of government. Serving as President, Macron will be head of state, but not head of government, a duty that is constitutionally reserved for the Prime Minister. Even though some recent polls foresee Macron’s new political movement En Marche! (Onwards!) performing well during the summer’s parliamentary elections, it is unlikely that he will have a governing majority without the necessity to form a coalition with other parties. Therefore, Macron will have to choose a consensus Prime Minister, likely from the center-right, who will hold the keys to real policymaking and economic reform in France. While the President and the Prime Minister are supposed to work together in France’s semi-presidential system of government, this is not always the case, particularly when the Prime Minister has majority backing in the National Assembly and cannot be dismissed by the President.

Macron is expected to announce his choice for Prime Minister and most of his ministerial cabinet between May 14 and 15. Thus far, he has only stated that he would like a female figure for the position of Prime Minister, even though most of the top contenders seem to be male. Throughout the last decade, the two previous French presidents have had different experiences with their Prime Ministers. In the case of Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012), he only had one Prime Minister during his Presidency, the defeated center-right candidate François Fillon. However, current President François Hollande (2012-2017), has had three different Prime Ministers (Ayrault, Valls, and Cazeneuve), proof of the instability and unpopularity of his five years as President. For Macron, the selection of a Prime Minister will likely prove to be the most important decision of his Presidency. His Prime Minister might become a close collaborator or a figure that could potentially cast a shadow over his Presidency and send him to the background of the political scenario.

Ultimately, while Macron’s election might have been historic and important, more so will be his Presidency. Even though the crisis of the extremes has been averted this time around, the political weight and relevance of previously sidelined formations, such as the Front National, is here to stay. If Macron fails to deliver on economic growth, comprehensive immigration reform, national security, fairer European integration, and better state services during his five-year term, Marine Le Pen will have an open road to the Élysée Palace in 2022.

(Read more about the first round of the French Presidential election)