Mexico’s Election Propels Lopez Obrador to the Presidency
On Sunday, July 1, Mexico celebrated its general election for the term from 2018 to 2024, with a participation rate of some 60%. However, participation was low on the part of Mexicans living abroad, with less than 100.000 absentee ballots cast out of an expatriate community that totals more than 12 million worldwide. With approximately 53% or almost 32 million votes, left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, was elected president. Meanwhile, the final count for the Mexican National Congress will determine how much leeway AMLO’s Administration and his governing coalition, under the MORENA Party, will enjoy.
Mexico’s Election Propels Lopez Obrador to the Presidency
Foreseen in the polls during recent months, AMLO’s historic victory represents a major defeat for Mexico’s traditional political class and a watershed moment in the nation’s history. The former Mayor of Mexico City and thrice a presidential candidate, President-elect Lopez Obrador based his anti-establishment campaign on fighting crime and corruption at the national level as well as standing up for Mexico’s working class and antagonizing the Trump Administration’s hostile rhetoric. The already strained relationship between Mexico and the United States is likely to hit new lows during President Lopez Obrador’s term given his anti-Washington rhetoric and the growing anti-Trump sentiment in Mexico. Sensitive international issues, such as the future of NAFTA, the joint fight against transnational crime, and US-Mexico cooperation on border security, will be seriously jeopardized by the attitudes of both President Trump and President Lopez Obrador during the coming months. Meanwhile, in spite of his controversial and left-wing rhetoric, during his tenure as Mayor of Mexico City, AMLO worked in sync with the city’s business elites and private sector.
In terms of international trade, President-elect AMLO has been critical of NAFTA and has repeatedly stated his intention of diversifying Mexico’s export market beyond the United States. Thus, over the coming years, it is expected that Mexico’s export sector will strengthen its ties with regions like South America and Europe. In this regard, Mexico already has trade agreements with the European Union and with the countries of the Pacific Alliance, which include Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It is important to mention that Mexico’s GDP of US$2.4 trillion has experienced positive economic growth above 2.0% in recent years. This trend is expected to continue as key sectors of the economy continue developing favorably and foreign investment keeps flowing into the country. Macroeconomic factors like the international price of petroleum markets and the overall strength of the US Dollar (USD) will be key to the continued growth of Mexico’s economy in the coming years.