Negotiation will Ensure a Stable and Lasting Peace in Colombia
As of 2012, the government of the Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos (2010-2018) and the FARC guerilla group have been engaged in an ongoing negotiation to put an end to the armed social conflict within the country. The negotiations finalized this summer and, last week, President Santos and the FARC commander Rodrigo Londoño signed the Peace Treaty in Cartagena, Colombia with the international community bearing witness. The last step to fully implement the Peace Treaty was a national referendum, through which the Colombian people would be able to express an opinion in regards to the current terms of the agreement.
After a couple weeks of intense campaigning, the final result in favor of the No came down to a difference of less than one (1) percent, representing approximately 60.000 votes. The vote results were marked by a stark contrast between the rural sectors of the country, who favored the current agreement, and the urban areas, who voted against it. Ultimately, it was the central and highly populated regions of the country, which decided against the current terms of the agreement. It is important to note that the regions that have been affected severely by the conflict overwhelmingly supported the current agreement. Similarly, severe rain on the day of the referendum along the northern coast of the country certainly made a difference given that this region, which leans sharply in favor of the current agreement, was not able to vote as expected.
Negotiation will Ensure a Stable and Lasting Peace in Colombia
Beginning Sunday, October 2nd, and continuing into the coming weeks, three main actors will dominate the political scene. These are the governing National Unity coalition alongside President Santos, the main opposition formation of the Democratic Center led by former President Alvaro Uribe, and the leaders of the FARC guerilla. During this critical time, President Santos has shown remarkable leadership in summoning all three parties to a dialogue.
Today, peace is the consensus choice publicly embraced by all political actors. Both President Santos and the FARC commander Rodrigo Londoño have stated that the definitive ceasefire implemented through the country is not in question. Furthermore, the FARC has stated its willingness to grant even more concessions regarding the terms of the agreement in order to ensure that the Peace Treaty implementation goes forward as the guerrilla militants do not intend to retreat into the mountains once again. Similarly, the champions of the No, represented by the Democratic Center’s leadership, are calling for a lasting peace to be achieved through a National Accord agreed upon with the FARC and all sectors of civil society.
The legal and economic outlook of Colombia remain unchanged, as the effects of the referendum vote are mainly political in nature. Certainly, the political position of President Santos is weakened given that he waged most of his political capital on the approval of the Peace Treaty as is. Nevertheless, national legislation remains unchanged. Furthermore, key policy measures, such as the incentives towards sustainable foreign investment and rural agricultural development, are some of the issues that unite all three of the main groups at play. Finally, in the foreign exchange markets, the Colombian Peso has experienced a minimal retreat of approximately two (2) cents against the US dollar since Sunday.